Which recession was worse, the double dip recession under Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s or the current one under George W. Bush and Barack Obama?

Sarah Palin says it was worse under Reagan, and that he “showed us” the way out, presumably with tax cuts and a massive arms buildup.

Now politifact.com, the nonpartisan truth squad, compares the two recessions on all kind sof criteria, including unemployment, long term unemployment, income, and the value sof stocks. It’s conclusion? The Bush-Obama recession is worse, and Palin is wrong.

“It's no secret that Republicans love Ronald Reagan. So it's no surprise to see Sarah Palin, in her new book Going Rogue: An American Life, burnishing the reputation of the Gipper -- and taking a shot at the current president while she's at it,” politifact says.

“`Our nation is facing great challenges, but I'm optimistic -- and I know there is a way forward,’ she writes. `Ronald Reagan faced an even worse recession. He showed us how to get out of one.’’

The politifact report looked at several benchmarks, including:

--Length of recession: A wash;

--Economic growth: close;

--peak unemployment: worse under Reagan;

--rise in unemployment: worse under Obama;

--long term unemployment: much worse under Obama;

--personal income: worse under Obama;

--industrial production: worse under Obama;

--stock markets: worse under Obama;

--housing prices: much worse under Obama;

--foreclosures: much worse under Obama;

Bank failures: a wash so far.

Politfact did not include inflation, which was much worse under Reagan.

“A number of the conservative economists we spoke to believe that the high inflation of the early 1980s made Reagan's challenge worse.

“But we found significant disagreement with other economists about whether inflation is a good barometer of a recession. Some of them said it can be high in good economic times and low in poor economic times. So we're not rendering a verdict on it to compare the recessions.”

Still, the group said, inflation would not tip the balance.

“Even if we had decided to include inflation as a factor, the measurements would still indicate the current recession is worse. So we find Palin's claim to be False.”

President Barack Obama’s political operation shot back at Sarah Plain Friday, saying she sets the agenda for the right and that she’s using the publicity surrounding her book tour to try to stop health care legislation with false attacks.

“Right now, Sarah Palin is on a highly publicized, nationwide book tour, attacking President Obama and his plan for health reform at every turn,” said an email from Mitch Stewart, director of Organizing for America, Obama’s political operation.

“It's dangerous. Remember, this is the person who coined the term `Death Panels’ -- and opened the flood gates for months of false attacks by special interests and partisan extremists.

“Whatever lie comes next will be widely covered by the media, then constantly echoed by right-wing attack groups and others who are trying to defeat reform.”

Stewart, who used the warning as a pitch to raise $500,000, said Palin is getting loads of free publicity on conservative radio and TV shows at the very moment when health care legislation is facing key votes in the Congress.

“As we approach the final sprint on health reform, we can't afford more deception and delay. We need to be ready for anything -- and have the resources to respond with ads, events, and calls to Congress when the attacks come,” he wrote.

“Earlier this month, Palin publicly said that she hopes health reform will be "dead on arrival." And since then, she's been working fiercely toward that goal.

“On Tuesday, Palin went on Rush Limbaugh's radio show where she outrageously -- and falsely -- suggested that Americans could "face jail time as punishment" if they don't buy insurance.

“Palin has many more interviews scheduled on Hannity and other conservative shows in the next few weeks, with more platforms to go after the President. As soon as she does, the rest of our opponents will likely parrot those attacks.”

The decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava to withdraw from a special U.S. House election in New York could have profound impact on the Republican Party. What that is depends on whether the Democrat wins the open seat in upstate New York or whether the Conservative Party candidate wins.

If the Democrat wins, it will mean:

-a round of back stabbing between the conservatives who hounded Scozzafava out of the race and the pragmatists who thought it would take a moderate like the pro-choice Scozzafava to hold the seat the party had held for generations;

-An unclear path as the party tries to recruit candidates for 2010 races and their fight to win back control of the U.S. House. Pragmatists like Newt Gingrich will argue strongly that the GOP needs to be flexible enough to go with candidates who fit their districts;

-a loss of face for Sarah Palin, who jumped in to endorse the Conservative Party candidate against her party's own nominated candidate.

If the Conservative Party candidate wins, it means:

-a big win for conservatives, who will be emboldened to challenge other Republican nominees if they're deemed to be RINOs - Republican in Name Only;

-a big win for Palin, who will bolster her credentials as a maverick devoted more to conservatism than party.

A group of prominent conservatives including former top Reagan adviser and Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese today endorsed the Conservative Party candidate over the Republican Party candidate in next Tuesday special election in New York’s 23rd  Congressional district.

“We are convinced that Doug Hoffman represents the clearest choice for those citizens who believe the current administration and Congress in Washington are out of control and out of touch,” said an open letter from the group.

“Doug Hoffman supports the right to bear arms, the right to life, a fiscally responsible budget, and school choice. He opposes ‘card check’ for union organizers, same-sex marriage and President Obama’s stimulus spending extravaganza.

“Unfortunately, Hoffman’s Republican opponent – Dede Scozzafaca – supports giving union organizers ‘card check’ power to undermine worker freedom, supports same sex marriage, supports the Obama stimulus, voted for higher taxes 190 times in the New York State Assembly, voted to force all New York State employees to pay union dues as a condition of employment, and has been endorsed multiple times by ACORN’s Working Families Party in New York.”
 
The statement was signed by 15 conservatives including Meese, former Reagan Budget Director James C. Miller III, American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, ConsevatveHQ.com Chairman Richard Viguerie, and Family Research Council President Tony Perkins.

They join former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in backing Hoffman in the party battle.

Among those backing Scozzafaca is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The fathers of Sarah and Todd Palin will be joining forces this month to help an Idaho congressional candidate who’s getting an early start on his 2010 election bid.

Both Chuck Heath and Jim Palin will be in Idaho later on this month to help out Vaughn Ward, a Republican candidate for Congress. They’ll be attending fundraisers for Ward at the end of the month in Boise and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, Ward's campaign spokesman said.

The former Alaska governor's father is an Idaho native who graduated from Sandpoint High School in northern Idaho. Palin, Sen. John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate last year, herself is a 1987 graduate of the University of Idaho.

Ward is a 40-year-old veteran of the Iraq War who worked on Dirk Kempthorne's staff when he was a senator from Idaho. Most recently, Ward worked for the McCain-Palin presidential campaign in Nevada. He also has secured McCain’s endorsement.

Ward is challenging a Democrat, Rep. Walt Minnick, who himself unseated a one-term Republican last year. Minnick has one of the most conservative voting records in his own party – he has voted with Democrats just 64 percent of the time, according to a Washington Post database of congressional votes.

Although several Republicans have entered the race already, Ward has emerged as a favorite of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He also has been an effective fundraiser, bringing in $70,000 between April and June, for a total of about $120,000 so far. It’s nowhere near Minnick’s campaign war chest, however. Minnick raised $718,000 for the 2010 election and had about $481,000 in cash on hand as of June 30.

Idaho’s 1st Congressional district, which runs along western Idaho from the border of Canada to Nevada, is among the most conservative in the nation. McCain carried 62 percent of voters in the district last November, a drop from 2004, when President George W. Bush won with 69 percent of the vote. Minnick won the district with just 51 percent of the vote in 2008.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is more popular than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to a new bipartisan poll released Wednesday.

The Battleground Poll conducted for George Washington University found 42 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee who stepped down last week as governor of Alaska. The survey found 47 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Palin.    

While Plain trailed behind both President Barack Obama (61 favorable/36 unfavorable) and Vice President Joe Biden (48/38) she easily outpolled Pelosi, the highest ranking elected women in the country.

The survey found 32 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of Pelosi, a Democrat from San Francisco, and 51 percent had an unfavorable impression.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., trailed them all in personal popularity, with 15 percent holding a favorable impression and 31 percent having an unfavorable impression.  

OK, that's really what you would expect someone to say about a rival if they were trying to win an interview from, say, a southern state governor who's gone missing and, at the time, no one knows why.

You have to wonder, however, what Gov. Mark Sanford's press secretary, Joel Sawyer, thought as it became clear even from the media e-mails promising a sympathetic ear that Sanford's walk in the woods had become a huge problem.

Some of the media e-mails were published this morning by McClatchy's The State newspaper. The paper got them in response to an open records request. You can read a few of the e-mails here. For the story, go here.

In one, ABC's White House correspondent Jake Tapper tries to show how mean rival NBC was being to the governor when he passed along Meet the Press host David Gregory's "tweet" on Sanford: David Gregory of NBC just tweeted: Fm first read re Gov. Sanford: U should be concerned if "your wife say(s) she doesn't know where you are but isn't concerned"

Sawyer's response, if any, isn't known, but you can imagine what he was thinking, and it wasn't about calling Tapper to give him the exclusive, even if Tapper 23 minutes earlier had sent Sawyer the transcript of that morning's TODAY show, with the subject line "NBC spot was slimy."

The next day Sanford surfaced and, prompted by news The State had e-mails between Sanford and his Argentine lover, confessed. Slimy, indeed.

You’ve heard of the SI Jinx? Well, it’s nothing compared to the VP Jinx.

The SI Jinx, of course, is the alleged curse of bad luck that comes when an athlete makes the cover of Sports Illustrated.  Well known, and more myth than reality.

But the VP Jinx is another story. With the political implosion that could follow Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s abrupt decision to quit her job, she would make seven politicians in a row whose careers in national politics peaked or otherwise ran into trouble after being tapped to be the vice presidential running mate on what turned out to be a losing ticket.

Most think they’ve jumped into the big time when they are named running mate, thinking they’re in great position to win their party’s presidential nomination the next time around. But not since Walter Mondale did in 1984 has a vice presidential also-ran gone on to win their party’s top nod. Mondale was vice president and vice presidential candidate in 1980 and Democratic nominee four years later.

Of course, he lost 49 states in the general election. But he at least won the nomination.

Consider the modern history:

2008. Republican running mate is Palin. Considered a likely candidate for the nomination in 2012, she stuns the political world this weekend by saying she’ll walk away from her job as governor more than a year before her term is finished;

2004. Democrat running mate is John Edwards, a first term senator from North Carolina. Forgoing what was likely to be a losing bid for a second term, Edwards instead runs for the 2008 presidential nomination _ while having an affair and a love child. He gets swamped in the primaries, and thrown out by his wife.

2000. Democrat running mate is Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, chosen in part because of his independent streak. He runs for the nomination himself in 2004, and quits when he fails to win a single primary. In 2006, he’s defeated in a Democratic primary by a more liberal challenger, then wins a fourth term as an independent. In 2007, he endorses Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

1996. Republican running mate is former Rep. Jack Kemp of New York. Once considered the conservative heir to Ronald Reagan, he runs for the 1988 GOP nomination but fails. After the Dole-Kemp ticket loses the 1996 election, Kemp says the run “whetted my appetite” to run for the 2000 presidential nomination. He does not run.

1992. Republican running mate is Vice President Dan Quayle. After losing, Quayle passes on a chance to run for governor of his home state of Indiana. He launches his bid for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination in April 1999, then drops out by fall of the same year.

1988. Democratic running mate is Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas. After losing Bentsen goes back to the Senate, and later serves as Secretary of the Treasury.

1984: Democratic running mate is Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York. With the spotlight on her candidate come media questions about her husband’s business practices, which follow her for years. She twice runs for the New York Democratic Senate nomination, losing narrowly in 1992 and by a 2-1 margin in 1998.

In fact, you have to go back all the way to 1920 to find a vice presidential running mate on a losing ticket who went on to win not only his party’s presidential nomination but the presidency itself.

In 1920, Gov. James Cox of Ohio was the Democratic nominee. He went down to defeat, along with his running mate –Assistant Navy Secretary Franklin D. Roosevelt. FDR, of course, went on to win it all 12 years later.

One of the things I and others at McClatchy do every time we post a story on the Web site is comb through our archives for related stories to link to. In the case of Sarah Palin, it's a long list — I haven't even made it back to our first stories, which, of course, pre-date her selection as McCain's VP candidate.

What rings true from that review is her complaint that she and Todd have found her time in the political spotlight to be personally costly. (Her allegations that Alaska has spent $2 million reviewing ethics complaints Friday seems exaggerated; this story from just a few days ago says the total is much less — and most of it was due to the "troopergate" investigation into whether she tried to have her ex brother-in-law fired. That probe was underway well before she was on the national stage.)

From a personal standpoint, she said she and Todd have rung up $500,000 in legal bills "setting the record straight." That's money enough. But it comes on top of a series of financial setbacks, all smaller, but still. . .

There were the back federal taxes she had to pay on the per diem she claimed while living in her Wasilla house, away from the governor's mansion in Juneau; the money she had to reimburse for her children's travel expenses, improperly billed to the state; the state car she gave up when it was determined she'd have to pay taxes on that, too.

Add the psychic blows she took over Bristol's pregnancy, Levi's joblessness and the efforts to get him employed, the various problems with future and current in-laws, the slams over what she wears, both on the campaign trail and at snow machine races, and you can see why it might become overwhelming. To say nothing of the Vanity Fair piece, in which all the allegations of her lack of preparation for high office are revisited.

If you're a hockey mom with a toddler, an unmarried daughter with an infant and now no fiance, another daughter entering the long slog through the teen years, how much combat do you want to do with David Letterman? Especially if your husband works as a commercial fisherman in the summers and rides the snow machine circuit in the winters.

It's way too early to write Sarah Palin's political obituary, of course. We'll soon know how her PAC did raising money, and as someone noted on TV last night, presidential candidates are often in their 60s; Palin's only 45.

And there's the book deal; out of office, perhaps she'll return fire, as she's done before. Can't wait. Because as everyone in the online world knows, nothing draws readers like a story with "Palin" in the headline.

Todd Purdam's Vanity Fair article about Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is out in the August issue
of the magazine.

The article begins with a description of Palin's triumphant return to campaign-style politics, with her April appearance at the Vanderburgh County Right to Life dinner, but there also are some new campaign trail tidbits from 2008, like this from McCain-Palin aides:

"In recent rounds of long conversations, most made it clear that they suffer a kind of survivor’s guilt: they can’t quite believe that for two frantic months last fall, caught in a Bermuda Triangle of a campaign, they worked their tails off to try to elect as vice president of the United States someone who, by mid-October, they believed for certain was nowhere near ready for the job, and might never be. They quietly ponder the nightmare they lived through. Do they ever ask, What were we thinking? "Oh, yeah, oh, yeah," one longtime McCain friend told me with a rueful chuckle. "You nailed it."

And this:

"At one point, trying out a debating point that she believed showed she could empathize with uninsured Americans, Palin told McCain aides that she and Todd in the early years of their marriage had been unable to afford health insurance of any kind, and had gone without it until he got his union card and went to work for British Petroleum on the North Slope of Alaska. Checking with Todd Palin himself revealed that, no, they had had catastrophic coverage all along. She insisted that catastrophic insurance didn’t really count and need not be revealed. This sort of slipperiness -- about both what the truth was and whether the truth even mattered -- persisted on questions great and small."