No surprise here, but on the eve of a crucial Senate vote on health care reform, the White House said Friday evening it "strongly supports" the $848 billion bill.

The Senate is scheduled to vote, starting at 8 p.m. Saturday, on whether to end a Republican-led filibuster and proceed to formal consideration of the health care overhaul.

The White House made it clear it likes the bill, saying it "represents a critical milestone in the effort to reform our health care system." It cites data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which issued its preliminary analysis of the bill Wednesday.

"This legislation meets the President’s criteria for health insurance reform: it provides stability and security to those with insurance; offers access to quality, affordable health care for those who do not have insurance; cuts costs for families, small businesses and the Government; and does so without adding a dime to the deficit," the Obama administration statement says.

It adds:

"This legislation is the product of unprecedented cooperation and countless hours of hard work by Members of the Senate who share the President’s conviction that the Nation cannot wait another year for health insurance reform. They have forged a strong consensus that represents an historic step forward.

"The Senate legislation includes critical reforms to the insurance industry, so that Americans will no longer have to worry that they will be denied coverage, or that their coverage will be dropped or watered down when they need it most. It covers virtually all Americans and ensures that all Americans with health insurance are protected against high, out-of-pocket spending.

"The Administration is pleased that the bill includes a public health insurance option offered in an Exchange. As the President has said throughout this process, a public option that competes with private insurers is one of the best ways to provide the choice and competition that are so badly needed in today’s market.

"The Senate bill also includes important health care delivery system and insurance reforms and cost-containment initiatives, and it would extend the solvency of Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund. The Administration is also pleased that the bill creates an Independent Medicare Advisory Board. The bill’s Medicare and Medicaid policies promote integrated care, quality care, and primary care. It invests in research on the most effective treatments, prevention, and the health care workforce. It also makes critical improvements for Medicare beneficiaries including beginning to address the coverage gap in the Medicare drug benefit known as the donut hole. In addition, it provides new options for long-term care. The bill includes important program integrity protections that will safeguard Medicare and Medicaid from fraud, waste, and abuse. Moreover, the Senate bill is not only fully paid for, but also reduces the deficit by $130 billion in the first decade and by more than half a trillion dollars in the next decade. "

President Barack Obama dropped below 50 percent in his job approval rating in another poll Friday -- a politically dangerous trend that could spell major trouble in next year’s elections if it’s not reversed.

The Gallup Poll found 49 percent of Americans approving of the way Obama is doing his job, calling it the 4th fastest drop to the sub-50 mark in more than half a century.

It follows polls by Quinnipiac University and Fox News earlier this week that also found Obama dropping below majority approval for the first time.

“Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job,” Gallup says in its analysis.

“Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan's drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama's (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

“But all presidents except John Kennedy dropped below the majority approval level at some point in their presidencies, and all recovered after the first time below this mark to go back above 50% approval.”

Obama’s fellow Democrats know that it’s critical for them that he rebound.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff notes, a president’s approval rating is a very important measure of his party will do in the mid-term Congressional elections like thos coming up in 2010.

Since the mid-term election 1962, presidents with approval ratings above 60 percent have gained an average of 1 seat in the House of Representatives.

Those with approval ratings in the 50s have lost an average of 12 seats.

And those with an approval rating below 50 percent – Johnson in 1966, Ford in 1974, Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994 and Bush in 2006 – have lost an average of 41 seats.

With a 258-177 margin now in the House, a 41-seat swing is exactly the number it would take for the Democrats to lose control.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd faces new problems in his bid for a new Senate term next year: By a 53-39 percent margin, Connecticut voters do not think he deserves re-elecction.

Those are among the findings of a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. The poll of 1,236 Connecticut voters was conducted Nov. 3-8, and margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

It found Dodd trailing former Rep. Rob Simmons, a Republican, by 49-38. He would also lose to former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon, 43-41.

Dodd has been a leading figure in crafting health care and banking system overhaul legislation this year.

But, said poll director Douglas Schwartz in a statement, "Healthcare is an issue that should work for Sen. Dodd. Voters who tell us it's the most important issue side with him. But voters who care most about the economy say the Republican candidate will be better able to deal with it. If the economy worsens, this will hurt Dodd."

Simmons leads GOP primary candidates with 28 percent; McMahon has 17 percent.

Here's the poll: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1395

A congressional Christmas?

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer Wednesday announced the prospective House of Representatives schedule for the rest of 2009, and he warns members could be voting up till December 22.

"As action on health insurance reform legislation moves to the Senate, the House is updating its schedule for November and December to reflect that, and to ensure there is time to complete our work on other important issues," Hoyer said.

Then again, Hoyer and the rest of the House, as well as the Senate, is done with voting this week--everyone's gone till Monday for an extended Veterans Day recess. They're back next week, then gone again for a week-long Thanksgiving break.

Here's the schedule:

.http://majorityleader.house.gov/docUploads/2009-FINAL-CALENDAR.pdf

And now a word from Senate Republicans...

Now that the House of Representatives has passed its version of health care change, the measure heads to the Senate, where it faces a bumpy path. Here's what Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., had to say today about the bill:

"The government-run plan that narrowly passed the House Saturday was rejected by one in seven House Democrats and a majority of Americans. It should serve as a stark reminder that Americans don’t want a 2,000-page, trillion-dollar government experiment—they want commonsense reforms.

“Soon, Senate Democrats will propose their own version.  We don’t know how big it will be or how expensive, but we do know with certainty that it will mean higher premiums, higher taxes and massive cuts to Medicare to create even more government programs. That’s not reform.”

Wondering when the House of Representatives may take up health care? Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., tried to make it perfectly clear, as he explained Tuesday at a press conference how he may/should/must abide by the rule that legislation be made available to the public 72 hours in advance. Here's the exchange with reporters:

Question (from a reporter): I am a little unclear on the timing of health care that at least you are looking at this week.

hour thing, first of all, A, is that from when the manager's amendment is brought to final vote and beginning debate? And also, how do you feel about the House taking up UI this week given what the Senate has added to it?

Mr. Hoyer. Let me answer the first question. What are the specifics of the first question? 13

Q Is the 72 hours meaning you start debate, and then there will be a vote after 72 hours; or are you saying you won't start debate until the 72 hours?

Mr. Hoyer. We are certainly not going to have a vote for 72 hours, But it is my intent to give 72 hours before the bill comes to the floor.

Q Before floor action begins?

Mr. Hoyer. Yes. That is my intent. Now, if we miss that by 3 or 4 hours in terms of bringing it to the floor, but we don't have a vote until substantially later, I am not going to consider that an egregious violation of my own rule.

The decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava to withdraw from a special U.S. House election in New York could have profound impact on the Republican Party. What that is depends on whether the Democrat wins the open seat in upstate New York or whether the Conservative Party candidate wins.

If the Democrat wins, it will mean:

-a round of back stabbing between the conservatives who hounded Scozzafava out of the race and the pragmatists who thought it would take a moderate like the pro-choice Scozzafava to hold the seat the party had held for generations;

-An unclear path as the party tries to recruit candidates for 2010 races and their fight to win back control of the U.S. House. Pragmatists like Newt Gingrich will argue strongly that the GOP needs to be flexible enough to go with candidates who fit their districts;

-a loss of face for Sarah Palin, who jumped in to endorse the Conservative Party candidate against her party's own nominated candidate.

If the Conservative Party candidate wins, it means:

-a big win for conservatives, who will be emboldened to challenge other Republican nominees if they're deemed to be RINOs - Republican in Name Only;

-a big win for Palin, who will bolster her credentials as a maverick devoted more to conservatism than party.

A group of prominent conservatives including former top Reagan adviser and Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese today endorsed the Conservative Party candidate over the Republican Party candidate in next Tuesday special election in New York’s 23rd  Congressional district.

“We are convinced that Doug Hoffman represents the clearest choice for those citizens who believe the current administration and Congress in Washington are out of control and out of touch,” said an open letter from the group.

“Doug Hoffman supports the right to bear arms, the right to life, a fiscally responsible budget, and school choice. He opposes ‘card check’ for union organizers, same-sex marriage and President Obama’s stimulus spending extravaganza.

“Unfortunately, Hoffman’s Republican opponent – Dede Scozzafaca – supports giving union organizers ‘card check’ power to undermine worker freedom, supports same sex marriage, supports the Obama stimulus, voted for higher taxes 190 times in the New York State Assembly, voted to force all New York State employees to pay union dues as a condition of employment, and has been endorsed multiple times by ACORN’s Working Families Party in New York.”
 
The statement was signed by 15 conservatives including Meese, former Reagan Budget Director James C. Miller III, American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, ConsevatveHQ.com Chairman Richard Viguerie, and Family Research Council President Tony Perkins.

They join former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in backing Hoffman in the party battle.

Among those backing Scozzafaca is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The Democrat who oversees campaigns for the House of Representatives says his party does face a tough mid term election a year from now – but brushes aside talk of a tidal wave that would seep them from power as one did in 1994.

“This will not be another 1994,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “There are significant differences.”

Among them, he said at a breakfast Thursday with reporters, is the fact that the Democrats will have fewer open seats. Also, he said, the party is better prepared and won’t be caught by surprise as it was in 1994, when voters grew angry at the Democratic rule of first-term President Bill Clinton and the Democratic Congress.

Van Allen’s Republican counterpart, Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has declined to appear at the breakfast meeting of reporters this fall, telling sponsors that he’ll not come until next year

But Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., chairman of the Republican Study Committee Chairman, told the reporters last Friday that this part will win back control of the House, which they lost in 2006. He said the party “will be able to gain at least 40 seats,” enough to seize control.

A second Republican Wednesday suggested she's open to reaching a bipartisan consensus on overhauling the nation's health care system_but set several conditions for her support.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said "there simply is no question that our nation’s health care system requires substantial reform."

Maine's senior senator, Olympia Snowe, Tuesday was the only Republican on the Senate Finance Committee to back a Democratic-authored plan. Snowe warned, though, that her vote was no sure thing  in the weeks ahead, as the legislation goes through changes.

Collins praised Snowe, and said the Finance Committee measure "represents a substantial improvement over the costly and flawed alternative approved by the Senate Health Committee as well as the House bills." The two committee's bills are to be merged into one, and then considered by the full Senate.

But Collins had reservations about the Finance bill, too. It "falls short of the goal of providing access to more affordable health care for all Americans.  The goal of health care reform must be to rein in costs and provide consumers with more affordable choices. 

"Yet, many individuals and families would be forced to pay more for their health care under the Finance Committee bill, and they would have fewer choices.  Our health care reform efforts should give Americans more, not fewer, choices of affordable coverage options."

Collins also listed other concerns, notably about "onerous" penalties for small businesses and cuts in Medicare.

"It should not be the piggy bank for new spending programs when revenues are needed to shore up the current program," she said. “Finally, I am disappointed that the Finance Committee did not focus more on cost containment, which should have been one of the most important goals of this bill.  For example, the legislation contains no meaningful medical liability reforms to reduce frivolous lawsuits and reduce the costly practice of defensive medicine."