November 20, 2009

Obama drop below 50 % approval could spell big Dem losses

President Barack Obama dropped below 50 percent in his job approval rating in another poll Friday -- a politically dangerous trend that could spell major trouble in next year’s elections if it’s not reversed.

The Gallup Poll found 49 percent of Americans approving of the way Obama is doing his job, calling it the 4th fastest drop to the sub-50 mark in more than half a century.

It follows polls by Quinnipiac University and Fox News earlier this week that also found Obama dropping below majority approval for the first time.

“Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job,” Gallup says in its analysis.

“Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan's drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama's (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

“But all presidents except John Kennedy dropped below the majority approval level at some point in their presidencies, and all recovered after the first time below this mark to go back above 50% approval.”

Obama’s fellow Democrats know that it’s critical for them that he rebound.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff notes, a president’s approval rating is a very important measure of his party will do in the mid-term Congressional elections like thos coming up in 2010.

Since the mid-term election 1962, presidents with approval ratings above 60 percent have gained an average of 1 seat in the House of Representatives.

Those with approval ratings in the 50s have lost an average of 12 seats.

And those with an approval rating below 50 percent – Johnson in 1966, Ford in 1974, Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994 and Bush in 2006 – have lost an average of 41 seats.

With a 258-177 margin now in the House, a 41-seat swing is exactly the number it would take for the Democrats to lose control.

October 29, 2009

Top House Dem: We may lose seats next year, but not control

The Democrat who oversees campaigns for the House of Representatives says his party does face a tough mid term election a year from now – but brushes aside talk of a tidal wave that would seep them from power as one did in 1994.

“This will not be another 1994,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “There are significant differences.”

Among them, he said at a breakfast Thursday with reporters, is the fact that the Democrats will have fewer open seats. Also, he said, the party is better prepared and won’t be caught by surprise as it was in 1994, when voters grew angry at the Democratic rule of first-term President Bill Clinton and the Democratic Congress.

Van Allen’s Republican counterpart, Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has declined to appear at the breakfast meeting of reporters this fall, telling sponsors that he’ll not come until next year

But Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., chairman of the Republican Study Committee Chairman, told the reporters last Friday that this part will win back control of the House, which they lost in 2006. He said the party “will be able to gain at least 40 seats,” enough to seize control.

October 02, 2009

Congressional Record goes green

Congress is doing its part to go green and reduce greenhouse gases, as the Congressional Record will now be printed on 100 percent recycled paper.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the change Friday. “What we are doing now will reduce landfill waste, reduce 1.4 million pounds of greenhouse gas emissions annually, support private industry efforts to develop new, environmentally-friendly technologies," she said.

How much all this will help, though, could change as the years go on_Pelosi noted that the government now prints only 4,130 copies a day of the Record, down 75 percent from 1995, thanks to the Internet.

September 25, 2009

House could consider an insurance tax

The House of Representatives may consider a tax on high-end insurance policies after all.

The Senate Finance Committee is considering a proposal to impose a 40 percent excise tax on most policies costing more than $8,000 per individual and $21,000 per family, to help pay for its health care overhaul.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Friday she would not rule out such a tax.

"We just have to see how much money we need for what," she said. "If we're taking the bill down in cost, there are other provisions in the Senate bill that bend the curve that might be more palatable. We'll see."

The House bill would impose income tax surcharges on the wealthy. Many senators have balked at that idea, proposing instead the insurance tax.

The Senate Finance Committee is to resume consideration  of the legislation Tuesday, with the hope of finishing its work next week. Its version of health care would then be combined with a bill written this summer by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, and the full Senate would then consider the legislation.

In the House, three committees have written bills, and they will be combined into one soon.

Eventually, if the House and Senate pass different versions, a negotiating, or conference, committee would combine them into one_which is why Pelosi's openness to the insurance tax idea Friday seemed to indicate a willingness to find common ground on one of the health care effort's most vexing issues..

September 23, 2009

Cantor: Pelosi "in another world"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is "living in another world" if she thinks protests by conservatives recently could lead to violence, House Republican Whip Eric Cantor said Wednesday.

In an interview with Politico, the House's number 2 Republican cited remarks by Pelosi recently where she recalled the violence that plagued San Francisco in the 1970s.

To read the Politico story: http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=E42B556C-18FE-70B2-A8A33AC4F1683117

“I think she’s living in another world — I really do,” Cantor, R-Va., said. "I’m not condoning any of the things that, you know, the media may catch in terms of messages on the signs and what have you. But I have not run into any violence. I have not run into crowds running over people. We should want spirited debate, although civil, ... and I’ve not been anywhere over the last several months where I would even think such a situation where violence is in the offing exists.”

Here's last week's exchange between Pelosi, D-Calif., and a reporter at her weekly news conference.

Reporter: How concerned are you about the tone of the political debate in terms of people talking about anti-government rhetoric and so on, and the possibility of violence?

Pelosi: Well, I think we all have to take responsibility for our actions and our words. We are a free country and this balance between freedom and safety is one that we have to carefully balance. I have concerns about some of the language that is being used because I saw -- I saw this myself in the late '70s in San Francisco, this kind of -- of rhetoric was very frightening and it gave -- it created a climate in which we -- violence took place.

And so I wish that we would all, again, curb our enthusiasm in some of the statements that are made, understanding that -- that some of the people -- the ears it is falling on are not as balanced as the person making the statement might assume.

But, again, our country is great because people can say what they think and they believe, but I also think that they have to take responsibility for any incitement that they may cause.


 

September 17, 2009

Pelosi: Rhetoric today reminds her of San Francisco in the '70s

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi became unusually emotional Thursday when she recalled the tumult that bedeviled San Francisco in the 1970s_problems that reminded her of today's mood.

"I have concerns about some of the language that is being used because I saw this, myself, in the late ‘70s in San Francisco.  This kind of rhetoric was very frightening, and it created a climate in which violence took place," said Pelosi, who lives in San Francisco.

The San Francisco area in the 1970s endured several shocks, notably local cult leader Jim Jones, who took his followers to Guyana where in 1978 they committed a mass suicide.

Several days later, former city supervisor Dan White killed Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk, the first openly gay official elected in the state.

This year has seen nothing on that scale from political outrage. In August, protesters at town hall meetings occasionally spewed ugly rhetoric, and during President Barack Obama's address to Congress last week, Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., interrupted to tell him "You lie."

Wilson, who apologized to the White House, would not apologize on the House floor. The House voted earlier this week a resolution of disapproval of his action.

"I wish that we would all, again, curb our enthusiasm in some of the statements that are made," Pelosi said Thursday, "so that understanding that some of the people — the ears that it is falling on are not as balanced as the person making the statement might assume."

August 17, 2009

Pelosi pushes Obama to stick with public option

Liberal Democrats Monday are lining up to press President Obama for a government insurance option as part of any health care overhaul, after watching him and his administration suggest that he could give up the government insurance if necessary to win votes.

“There is strong support in the House for a public option,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in a statement. “In the House, all three of our bills contain a public option, as does the bill from the Senate HELP Committee.”

She called the availability of government insurance  “the best option to lower costs, improve the quality of health care, ensure choice and expand coverage. The public option brings real reform to lower costs over the 10-year period of the bill.”

Pelosi also reminded Obama that he’d long endorsed the so-called public option before signaling over the weekend that he would accept a health care bill from Congress with or without it.

“As the President stated in March, ‘The thinking on the public option has been that it gives consumers more choices and it helps keep the private sector honest, because there’s some competition out there,’” she said.

“We agree with the President that a public option will keep insurance companies honest and increase competition.”

July 30, 2009

House Democrats getting pocket cards to remind them how to talk up health care changes

House of Representatives Democrats are preparing for an August lobbying blitz on health care, so Speaker Nancy Pelosi will send lawmakers home with pocket cards full of convenient talking points.

Pelosi, D-Calif., is expecting interest groups and Republicans to be running ads, launching grassroots campaigns and devising other strategies to influence the legislation, which is expected to face a House vote in September. The House is expected to begin a five-week summer recess Friday.

Pelosi's points have ready-made quotes like "(fill in the blank) uninsured constituents would gain access to quality, affordable health insurance." It says in bold, capital letters the Democratic plan would be "putting you and your doctor back in charge_not the insurance companies_to guarantee stability, lower costs, higher quality and more choices of plans."

It also promises a plan that features "no discrimination for pre-existing conditions, like diabetes, a heart condition or cancer" and "no dropping your coverage because you become sick."

What it doesn't say is how all this will be paid for. One of the Democratic leaders' plans is to increase taxes on the wealthy, a plan meeting skepticism among Senate Democrats.

July 29, 2009

Poll: Palin more popular than Pelosi

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is more popular than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to a new bipartisan poll released Wednesday.

The Battleground Poll conducted for George Washington University found 42 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee who stepped down last week as governor of Alaska. The survey found 47 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Palin.    

While Plain trailed behind both President Barack Obama (61 favorable/36 unfavorable) and Vice President Joe Biden (48/38) she easily outpolled Pelosi, the highest ranking elected women in the country.

The survey found 32 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of Pelosi, a Democrat from San Francisco, and 51 percent had an unfavorable impression.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., trailed them all in personal popularity, with 15 percent holding a favorable impression and 31 percent having an unfavorable impression.  

July 27, 2009

Health care's on schedule, whenever it finally gets scheduled

"So," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Monday, speaking of health care, "we're on schedule either to do it now or to do it whenever."

In case you were wondering if that meant health care overhaul legislation would be finished this week, well...she's probably going to say, at least at the moment, that it's too soon to say.

"I have said that I wanted a bill to pass before we left for the August recess," Pelosi said. The recess is scheduled to begin Friday.

"In fact" she explained, "I honored a request of the president to make that commitment. But I've also said that our members need the time that they need to not only get the bill written but to have plenty of time to review it.

"And," Pelosi added, "I've also said that we need to see the direction that the Senate is going so that we can do as much work in advance of September so that when we come back, when we go to conference, we're a good way down the road."

As a result, she said,they're on schedule "either to do it now or to do it whenever."

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