President Barack Obama dropped below 50 percent in his job approval rating in another poll Friday -- a politically dangerous trend that could spell major trouble in next year’s elections if it’s not reversed.

The Gallup Poll found 49 percent of Americans approving of the way Obama is doing his job, calling it the 4th fastest drop to the sub-50 mark in more than half a century.

It follows polls by Quinnipiac University and Fox News earlier this week that also found Obama dropping below majority approval for the first time.

“Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job,” Gallup says in its analysis.

“Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan's drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama's (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

“But all presidents except John Kennedy dropped below the majority approval level at some point in their presidencies, and all recovered after the first time below this mark to go back above 50% approval.”

Obama’s fellow Democrats know that it’s critical for them that he rebound.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff notes, a president’s approval rating is a very important measure of his party will do in the mid-term Congressional elections like thos coming up in 2010.

Since the mid-term election 1962, presidents with approval ratings above 60 percent have gained an average of 1 seat in the House of Representatives.

Those with approval ratings in the 50s have lost an average of 12 seats.

And those with an approval rating below 50 percent – Johnson in 1966, Ford in 1974, Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994 and Bush in 2006 – have lost an average of 41 seats.

With a 258-177 margin now in the House, a 41-seat swing is exactly the number it would take for the Democrats to lose control.

A congressional Christmas?

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer Wednesday announced the prospective House of Representatives schedule for the rest of 2009, and he warns members could be voting up till December 22.

"As action on health insurance reform legislation moves to the Senate, the House is updating its schedule for November and December to reflect that, and to ensure there is time to complete our work on other important issues," Hoyer said.

Then again, Hoyer and the rest of the House, as well as the Senate, is done with voting this week--everyone's gone till Monday for an extended Veterans Day recess. They're back next week, then gone again for a week-long Thanksgiving break.

Here's the schedule:

.http://majorityleader.house.gov/docUploads/2009-FINAL-CALENDAR.pdf

And now a word from Senate Republicans...

Now that the House of Representatives has passed its version of health care change, the measure heads to the Senate, where it faces a bumpy path. Here's what Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., had to say today about the bill:

"The government-run plan that narrowly passed the House Saturday was rejected by one in seven House Democrats and a majority of Americans. It should serve as a stark reminder that Americans don’t want a 2,000-page, trillion-dollar government experiment—they want commonsense reforms.

“Soon, Senate Democrats will propose their own version.  We don’t know how big it will be or how expensive, but we do know with certainty that it will mean higher premiums, higher taxes and massive cuts to Medicare to create even more government programs. That’s not reform.”

If you're keeping score of the likely House of Representatives vote on health care Saturday, Congressional Quarterly has found at least 20 Democratic no votes.

But in its effort to survey 70 party moderates, it also found 20 undecided and 19 whose views were unknown. Eleven were yes votes or leaning that way.

The findings illustrate why the vote, expected late Saturday, remains suspenseful. It takes 218 votes to pass legislation, and the House has 258 Democrats.

Here's the list: http://www.cq.com/document/display.do?docid=3243366

The House of Representatives should finish voting on the historic health care overhaul bill by 7 or 8 p.m. Saturday night, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Friday.

But, Hoyer warned, that timetable could slip is "there are delaying tactics or something interferes." He would not say he had the 218 votes needed for passage, but said "We're  very close."

The hangups are largely over abortion and immigration. Anti-abortion Democrats want it clear that federal money will not be used for elective abortion services, and Hoyer has been trying to include language in the legislation to make that crystal clear.

He also is trying to satisfy wavering members on immigration. There is concern that illegal immigrants will have access to government money to help them pay for health care; Hoyer insists that won't be the case.

The talks will continue, and at the moment, plans are to begin debate Saturday morning. Republicans are expected to be allowed an hour to debate their alternative, followed by a vote. There would also be three hours set aside for general debate, and an hour to debate the rules on how to proceed.

Wondering when the House of Representatives may take up health care? Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., tried to make it perfectly clear, as he explained Tuesday at a press conference how he may/should/must abide by the rule that legislation be made available to the public 72 hours in advance. Here's the exchange with reporters:

Question (from a reporter): I am a little unclear on the timing of health care that at least you are looking at this week.

hour thing, first of all, A, is that from when the manager's amendment is brought to final vote and beginning debate? And also, how do you feel about the House taking up UI this week given what the Senate has added to it?

Mr. Hoyer. Let me answer the first question. What are the specifics of the first question? 13

Q Is the 72 hours meaning you start debate, and then there will be a vote after 72 hours; or are you saying you won't start debate until the 72 hours?

Mr. Hoyer. We are certainly not going to have a vote for 72 hours, But it is my intent to give 72 hours before the bill comes to the floor.

Q Before floor action begins?

Mr. Hoyer. Yes. That is my intent. Now, if we miss that by 3 or 4 hours in terms of bringing it to the floor, but we don't have a vote until substantially later, I am not going to consider that an egregious violation of my own rule.

Democrats are in jeopardy of not meeting their long-sought goal of getting a health care overhaul bill on President Barack Obama's desk by the end of the year.

Asked Tuesday if that goal was reachable, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said "We're not going to be bound by any time lines. We need to do the best job we can for the American people. We want quality legislation, and we're going to do that."

Reid has had trouble finding consensus among eight to 12 Senate Democratic moderates, centrists he badly needs to reach the 60-vote threshold required to overcome procedural hurdles.

It's expected the Senate will need at least a month to consider health care legislation, and with Veterans Day next Wednesday and Thanksgiving Nov. 26, time is running short.

Reid said he was undeterred. "We're going to do this legislation as expeditiously as we can, but we're going to do it as fairly as we can, also," he said.

The House of Representatives is expected to take up its version of the bill Friday,with a possible vote Saturday. Its measure would then have to be combined with whatever the Senate passes--a negotiation that could take some time--and the two Houses would then vote again.

While John Dingell's colleagues were invoking the spirit of Democratic leaders of the past to provide some momentum for their health care bill, Dingell was invoking his memories.

The 83-year-old Michigan congressman, who succeeded his father in 1955, came to a Capitol rally for health care with the same gavel he said he used to preside over an historic Medicare vote in the 1960s.

"I'm going to lend it to whoever it is who gets to preside over this legislation," he said of the 2009 health care effort, "because a good piece of wood doesn't war out with one great event."

If a bill passes, Dingell's name will be prominent on it. "And I'm sure my little daddy up above will be looking down on us," he told the crowd.

A group of prominent conservatives including former top Reagan adviser and Atty. Gen. Edwin Meese today endorsed the Conservative Party candidate over the Republican Party candidate in next Tuesday special election in New York’s 23rd  Congressional district.

“We are convinced that Doug Hoffman represents the clearest choice for those citizens who believe the current administration and Congress in Washington are out of control and out of touch,” said an open letter from the group.

“Doug Hoffman supports the right to bear arms, the right to life, a fiscally responsible budget, and school choice. He opposes ‘card check’ for union organizers, same-sex marriage and President Obama’s stimulus spending extravaganza.

“Unfortunately, Hoffman’s Republican opponent – Dede Scozzafaca – supports giving union organizers ‘card check’ power to undermine worker freedom, supports same sex marriage, supports the Obama stimulus, voted for higher taxes 190 times in the New York State Assembly, voted to force all New York State employees to pay union dues as a condition of employment, and has been endorsed multiple times by ACORN’s Working Families Party in New York.”
 
The statement was signed by 15 conservatives including Meese, former Reagan Budget Director James C. Miller III, American Conservative Union Chairman David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, ConsevatveHQ.com Chairman Richard Viguerie, and Family Research Council President Tony Perkins.

They join former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in backing Hoffman in the party battle.

Among those backing Scozzafaca is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Are Republicans ready to deal with Democrats on health care?

Rep. Eric Cantor, the House of Representatives' number two Republican, plans to meet Thursday afternoon with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

Their attempt at finding common ground, after months of criticism of the other party's plans and motives, came as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger Tuesday became the latest prominent Republican to urge a bipartisan effort.

In a statement, he urged everyone to "move forward and accomplish these vital goals for the American people."

His appeal follows that of former Bush administration Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, who called Senate Finance Committee legislation, authored largely by Democrats, "another important step toward achieving the goal of health care reform."

And former Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist said he could vote for change.

The Finance Committee is expected to vote sometime this week_though only one Republican member, Maine's Olympia Snowe, has indicated she would join the committee's 13 Democrats in approving the measure.