November 20, 2009

Obama drop below 50 % approval could spell big Dem losses

President Barack Obama dropped below 50 percent in his job approval rating in another poll Friday -- a politically dangerous trend that could spell major trouble in next year’s elections if it’s not reversed.

The Gallup Poll found 49 percent of Americans approving of the way Obama is doing his job, calling it the 4th fastest drop to the sub-50 mark in more than half a century.

It follows polls by Quinnipiac University and Fox News earlier this week that also found Obama dropping below majority approval for the first time.

“Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job,” Gallup says in its analysis.

“Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan's drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama's (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

“But all presidents except John Kennedy dropped below the majority approval level at some point in their presidencies, and all recovered after the first time below this mark to go back above 50% approval.”

Obama’s fellow Democrats know that it’s critical for them that he rebound.

As Republican pollster Bill McInturff notes, a president’s approval rating is a very important measure of his party will do in the mid-term Congressional elections like thos coming up in 2010.

Since the mid-term election 1962, presidents with approval ratings above 60 percent have gained an average of 1 seat in the House of Representatives.

Those with approval ratings in the 50s have lost an average of 12 seats.

And those with an approval rating below 50 percent – Johnson in 1966, Ford in 1974, Reagan in 1982, Clinton in 1994 and Bush in 2006 – have lost an average of 41 seats.

With a 258-177 margin now in the House, a 41-seat swing is exactly the number it would take for the Democrats to lose control.

November 19, 2009

Obama names Dana Perino to broadcasting board

 President Barack Obama has named former Bush White House Press Secretary Dana Perino to Broadcasting Board of Governors, which oversees the U.S. government’s non military broadcasts.

From the White House release:

“Dana Perino is the Chief Issues Counselor for the United States at Burson-Marsteller and is a Fox News Contributor. She is the former White House Press Secretary to President George W. Bush - the first Republican woman to hold that position. 

“Ms. Perino previously served in the United States Justice Department, was Director of Communications for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, and worked on Capitol Hill for Representatives Dan Schaefer (R-CO) and Scott McInnis (R-C). 

“She holds a M.A. in Public Affairs Reporting from the University of Illinois – Springfield and a B.A. in Mass Communications from Colorado State University - Pueblo.”

October 06, 2009

Are Republicans seeking bipartisanship on health care?

Are Republicans ready to deal with Democrats on health care?

Rep. Eric Cantor, the House of Representatives' number two Republican, plans to meet Thursday afternoon with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md.

Their attempt at finding common ground, after months of criticism of the other party's plans and motives, came as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger Tuesday became the latest prominent Republican to urge a bipartisan effort.

In a statement, he urged everyone to "move forward and accomplish these vital goals for the American people."

His appeal follows that of former Bush administration Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, who called Senate Finance Committee legislation, authored largely by Democrats, "another important step toward achieving the goal of health care reform."

And former Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist said he could vote for change.

The Finance Committee is expected to vote sometime this week_though only one Republican member, Maine's Olympia Snowe, has indicated she would join the committee's 13 Democrats in approving the measure.

September 09, 2009

Dodd stays at banking

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., will remain chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and though he's staying put, his decision Wednesday set in motion several changes.

Dodd could have succeeded his close friend, the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, who died last month, as chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions panel. Dodd had presided in Kennedy's absence this year, shepherding a health care overhaul plan through the committee.

But he chose to remain at banking, explaining he was eager to work on a financial industry reform bill. "We've done already a lot of work on that committee, but obviously the major reform efforts of financial regulation are in front of us. I want to get that job done," he told reporters.

Dodd faces a tough re-election in 2010, and opponents have criticized his work on the committee, saying he did not aggressively challenge the financial industry as the economy teetered.

Dodd responded Thursday. He noted he took over the committee in 2007, and "these issues didn't spring up magically in 2007," but were created by years of Bush administration policies.

Replacing Kennedy at the health committee will be Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa. Because Harkin chairs the agriculture committee, he'll give up that post to Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark.

July 04, 2009

Does Palin have the VP Jinx?

You’ve heard of the SI Jinx? Well, it’s nothing compared to the VP Jinx.

The SI Jinx, of course, is the alleged curse of bad luck that comes when an athlete makes the cover of Sports Illustrated.  Well known, and more myth than reality.

But the VP Jinx is another story. With the political implosion that could follow Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s abrupt decision to quit her job, she would make seven politicians in a row whose careers in national politics peaked or otherwise ran into trouble after being tapped to be the vice presidential running mate on what turned out to be a losing ticket.

Most think they’ve jumped into the big time when they are named running mate, thinking they’re in great position to win their party’s presidential nomination the next time around. But not since Walter Mondale did in 1984 has a vice presidential also-ran gone on to win their party’s top nod. Mondale was vice president and vice presidential candidate in 1980 and Democratic nominee four years later.

Of course, he lost 49 states in the general election. But he at least won the nomination.

Consider the modern history:

2008. Republican running mate is Palin. Considered a likely candidate for the nomination in 2012, she stuns the political world this weekend by saying she’ll walk away from her job as governor more than a year before her term is finished;

2004. Democrat running mate is John Edwards, a first term senator from North Carolina. Forgoing what was likely to be a losing bid for a second term, Edwards instead runs for the 2008 presidential nomination _ while having an affair and a love child. He gets swamped in the primaries, and thrown out by his wife.

2000. Democrat running mate is Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, chosen in part because of his independent streak. He runs for the nomination himself in 2004, and quits when he fails to win a single primary. In 2006, he’s defeated in a Democratic primary by a more liberal challenger, then wins a fourth term as an independent. In 2007, he endorses Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

1996. Republican running mate is former Rep. Jack Kemp of New York. Once considered the conservative heir to Ronald Reagan, he runs for the 1988 GOP nomination but fails. After the Dole-Kemp ticket loses the 1996 election, Kemp says the run “whetted my appetite” to run for the 2000 presidential nomination. He does not run.

1992. Republican running mate is Vice President Dan Quayle. After losing, Quayle passes on a chance to run for governor of his home state of Indiana. He launches his bid for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination in April 1999, then drops out by fall of the same year.

1988. Democratic running mate is Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas. After losing Bentsen goes back to the Senate, and later serves as Secretary of the Treasury.

1984: Democratic running mate is Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York. With the spotlight on her candidate come media questions about her husband’s business practices, which follow her for years. She twice runs for the New York Democratic Senate nomination, losing narrowly in 1992 and by a 2-1 margin in 1998.

In fact, you have to go back all the way to 1920 to find a vice presidential running mate on a losing ticket who went on to win not only his party’s presidential nomination but the presidency itself.

In 1920, Gov. James Cox of Ohio was the Democratic nominee. He went down to defeat, along with his running mate –Assistant Navy Secretary Franklin D. Roosevelt. FDR, of course, went on to win it all 12 years later.

May 30, 2009

Obamas go to NY for night out; GOP attacks

President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama are out on the town Saturday, making an unscheduled and unannounced trip to New York for dinner and a Broadway show.

The First Couple flew up to New York Saturday afternoon – using a small Gulfstream 500 and wisely forgoing the big 747 that set off such a brouhaha in Manhattan when it flew low over the island a few weeks ago with a fighter jet on its tail, all for an Air Force One publicity photo.

"I am taking my wife to New York City because I promised her during the campaign that I would take her to a Broadway show after it was all finished,” Obama said in a statement.

They headed first toward the Blue Hill restaurant on Washington Place, then were planning to catch “Joe Turner’s Come and Gone” at the Belasco Theater.

As they did, the Republican National Committee went on the attack, ripping them for going to a play while crises loom.

“As President Obama prepares to wing into Manhattan’s theater district on Air Force One to take in a Broadway show, GM is preparing to file bankruptcy and families across America continue to struggle to pay their bills,” RNC spokeswoman Gail Gitcho said.

Another release noted the nation’s unemployment rate is expected to hit 9.2 percent when new figures are released next week.

The RNC went on to compare the Obama’s trip to New York to the tale about former President Bill Clinton allegedly tying up air traffic in Los Angeles while getting a haircut on Air Force One. “Americans Have Seen This Show Before,” the RNC headlined.

Finally, the Republican Party noted that Obama made a joke at the recent White House Correspondents Association dinner about the Manhattan flyover of the 747 often used as Air Force One. “Obama May Joke About Air Force One Joyrides,” the RNC said.

(It did not mention former President George W. Bush’s joke at the Radio and Television  Correspondents Association dinner several years ago about the fact that there weren’t weapons of mass destruction in Iraq as he had said when he invaded the country.)

The RNC attack came just weeks after RNC Chairman Michael Steele vowed not to get personal in party criticisms of Obama.

“This is not about personalities,” he said in a speech on May 19 in suburban Washington.

“We're going to challenge those policies that we believe are wrong, and we're going to do so without apology and without a second thought.

“But there's a very important distinction I want to make here. We are going to take this president on with class. We're going to take this president on with dignity. This will be a very sharp and, I think, marked contrast to the shabby and classes way that the Democrats on the far left spoke of and treated President Bush over the last eight years.”

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