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October 30, 2012

Gallup sees turnout lower this year than in '04 and '08

Gallup sees potentially lower turnout Tuesday than in 2004 and 2008.

The polling organization uses a model to assess likelihood of voting. Among its findings: In its daily tracking polls from Oct. 15-28, Gallup found 85 percent saying they are giving a lot or some thought to the election this year, down from 87 percent in 2008 and 90 percent in 2004.

Here's some analysis from Gallup's Jeffrey Jones:

"U.S. voters have not been quite as engaged in the 2012 election as in the two that preceded it, even before Sandy. However, their stated voting intentions and reported thought given to the election suggest turnout would likely not revert to the lower levels of 1996 and 2000. If turnout does come in lower this year -- that is, it looks more like 1996 and 2000 and less like 1992, 2004, and 2008 -- that may be another effect of Sandy in addition to flooding and widespread power outages."

To read the entire analysis: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158435/voter-turnout-likely-fall-short-2004-2008.aspx

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The title conflicts with the Gallup quote... "suggest turnout would likely not revert to the lower levels of 1996 and 2000"

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