The decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava to withdraw from a special U.S. House election in New York could have profound impact on the Republican Party. What that is depends on whether the Democrat wins the open seat in upstate New York or whether the Conservative Party candidate wins.
If the Democrat wins, it will mean:
-a round of back stabbing between the conservatives who hounded Scozzafava out of the race and the pragmatists who thought it would take a moderate like the pro-choice Scozzafava to hold the seat the party had held for generations;
-An unclear path as the party tries to recruit candidates for 2010 races and their fight to win back control of the U.S. House. Pragmatists like Newt Gingrich will argue strongly that the GOP needs to be flexible enough to go with candidates who fit their districts;
-a loss of face for Sarah Palin, who jumped in to endorse the Conservative Party candidate against her party's own nominated candidate.
If the Conservative Party candidate wins, it means:
-a big win for conservatives, who will be emboldened to challenge other Republican nominees if they're deemed to be RINOs - Republican in Name Only;
-a big win for Palin, who will bolster her credentials as a maverick devoted more to conservatism than party.
It seems to me there is an excellent opportunity for the pragmatists formerly welcomed as Republicans to strike out on their own.
We need a third way, badly. Perhaps level heads from both of the "two party" slate could gravitate to each other, and do something together.
Posted by: JollyRoger | November 01, 2009 at 10:44 PM
If this becomes the pattern, the Democrats will win either way. Actually, it will be better for the Democrats if the 3rd Party candidate wins.
Before all the swirl up there, the heavy odds on favorite was the Republican, the district has been R since about forever.
If the Republican wins, it will embolden the fringe of the Republicans that they can do that in any district that "they" fell the Republican is not to their liking, no matter the preference of the residents of that district.
Once they do that, the fringe conservatives will try that in districts that won't stand for it, and the Democrats will end up winning seats that they shouldn't.
Then, the fringe will blame everyone but themselves, and drag the poor GOP even further into 3rd party status.
Sad but true.
Posted by: Joe | November 01, 2009 at 12:05 PM