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September 17, 2012

Venezuela's dueling polls put your candidate in the lead

IMG_3680To outside observers, polls in Venezuela seem downright schizophrenic. Both camps bandy about figures that give them sizeable leads.

Today, two of those dueling surveys came out. First, the Ministry of Communications released a report by IVAD, which gives President Hugo Chavez 55 percent of the vote versus rival Henrique Capriles' 36 percent of the vote. IVAD is considered a serious pollster, but you would never know it from their online presence. Their website www.ivad.com.ve has been under construction for at least two years. 

Also today, an outfit with a fantastic name, Predicmatica, told Noticias24 that Capriles has a a five-point lead over Chavez at 48 percent to 43 percent. Predicmatica has had Capriles in the lead since January, making it one of the most opposition friendly pollsters.

Even so, the vast majority of polls still have Chavez in the lead and with approval ratings that would make most presidents envious - not bad for someone who has been in power for 14 years. 

Capriles isn't worried about the polls. I caught up with him on the campaign trail recently (read that story here), and he said he has his own polls that show him in the lead. (Read that interview here.)

For a very funny take on Venezuela's pollsters check out Caracas Chronicles here.  

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jim wyss

Inside South America is written by Jim Wyss, the South America bureau chief for the Miami Herald and McClatchy Newspapers.

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