The U.S. military is encouraging its servicemen and women overseas to mail back their absentee ballots this week (For those who need more information on how to do that, here is the link.) I figured this week was also a good time to discuss who the troops are voting for. The question has sparked a fierce debate among some military circles, especially after the Military Times released a poll last week of its current and former subscribers.

The Times found that McCain had an overwhelming lead over Obama, 68 to 23 percent. And it said that Iraq ranked third amongst the most important issues to the troops, behind character and the economy.

Iraq was the No. 1 issue in the paper’s 2004 survey. And in that year, respondents said the voted for President Bush over Sen.  John Kerry, 68 to 17 percent.

The paper was quick to note that its readers tend to be older and don’t always reflect the diversity of the military. That is, it’s not scientific. But it’s the only poll of the military, which of course is a key – and telling – voting bloc. So what do the results mean?

I think it means that nobody really knows which way the military is leaning, or at least by how much. Troops usually vote overwhelming Republican, and Sen. John McCain’s service in the Navy and five-plus years as a prison of war in Vietnam make him a military hero by most anyone’s standards. So the numbers in some ways are not surprising.

And yet troops voting in this election likely have served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Their opinions about the way ahead are based on personal experiences, not political rhetoric. The drop in violence in Iraq – and the increase in Afghanistan – will shape how they think about the next four years. And the differences between the two candidates on Iraq are stark.

In August, the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics found that Sen. Barack Obama received nearly six times as much money from troops deployed overseas at the time of their contribution than to McCain or one-time presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul (who is fiercely opposed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.)

In addition, the paper found that “nearly eight out of 10 black service members indicated they intend to vote for Obama,” many who voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. 

So will the 68 to 23 percent lead hold? Perhaps. Regardless, the final tally could be the best measure we have on how the troops really feel not only politically, but on the surge, the move toward counterinsurgency and the way ahead in Iraq and Afghanistan.