Study: Terrorist violence is on the decline
Here is something counter-intuitive: a study says that, rather than increasing, the amount of terrorist violence is actually on the decline globally.
There's a big caveat, we hasten to add. The stark decline is apparent only when violence in Iraq is excluded. That may seem ludicrous, but read on. The authors of the study at Canada's Simon Fraser University argue that the killings of civilians in wartime, such as in Iraq, is not normally described as "terrorism," but rather as a "war crime" or "crime against humanity." In fact, they point out, most major databases of terror count violence against civilians in Iraq as terrorism, but not violence against civilians in Sudan's Darfur region.
Without Iraq included, the report said, two major databases -- one at the University of Maryland and one at the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism -- charted a more than 40 percent decline in fatalities from terrorism since 2001.
Even when Iraq is included, terrorism fatalities have dropped recently, the report says.
The report's authors caution that a decline in deaths from terrorism does not necessarily mean the threat from terrorism, especially Islamist terrorism, is decreasing. But they argue there are signs that international counter-terrorism efforts are having an effect, as well as evidence of "bitter doctrinal infighting" within the global Islamist network and reduced support for al Qaida and similar groups in the Muslim world.
Check out the report. Decide for yourself.
Persona:
"The Field Manual of the U.S. Army defines terrorism as the "the unlawful use of--or threatened use of--force or violence against individuals or property to coerce or intimidate governments or societies, often to achieve political, religious, or ideological objectives.""
If that's so, it's an extraordinarily broad definition. It encompasses almost all use of military force. The only distinction drawn is the word "unlawful" and in such circumstances that's usually in the eye of the beholder.
I'll leave it as an exercise to consider just when we'll achieve victory in the War Against the Use of Military Force. It's almost as if someone wants us to be at War forever, eh? ("Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.")
Posted by: Hal O'Brien | June 17, 2008 at 04:46 PM
Thanks for the many interestign comments here. Tom, you make a good point. There are a few publicly available terrorism incident databases available.. One is the Global Terrorism Database, available via the University of Maryland's START program: http://www.start.umd.edu/
There's also the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System of the intelligence community's National Counterterrorism Center:
http://wits.nctc.gov/
Finally, the State Department's annual Country Reports on Terrorism has some statistics available in an annex, with the data supplied by the NCTC. (NCTC and the US government count violence in Iraq against civilians as terrorism):
http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2007/index.htm
Regards
Warren
Posted by: Warren Strobel | May 25, 2008 at 03:14 PM
This report would be more meaningful if one could look at a comparable brief from prior years. The 2006 Brief apparently did not look at terrorism but armed conflict.
When a 40% decline is noted, a prudent person would want to see the data from which the comparison was made. I couldn't find that on the site you linked to.
Posted by: Tom Traubert | May 24, 2008 at 07:19 PM
Link to Article (cut and past: http://www.usembassy-mexico.gov/bbf/bfdossier_Terrorismo_whatis.htm
What is terrorism?
There is no universally accepted definition of international terrorism. One definition widely used in U.S. government circles, and incorporated into law, defines "international terrorism" as terrorism involving the citizens or property of more than one country. Terrorism is broadly defined as politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents. A "terrorist group" is defined as a group which practices or which has significant subgroups which practice terrorism (22 U.S.C. 2757f). One potential shortfall of this traditional definition is its focus on groups and group members and exclusion of individual (non-group organized) terrorist activity which has recently risen in frequency and visibility. Another possible weakness of these standard definitions is the criterion of violence in a traditional form. Analysts pointing to computer "virus" sabotage incidents warn that terrorist acts could include more sophisticated forms of destruction and extortion such as disabling a national infrastructure by penetrating vital computer software. Finally, the October 12, 2000, "USS Cole" bombing raises issues of whether the standard definition would categorize this attack as terrorist, as the USS Cole, a military vessel, may not qualify as a "non-combatant".
Current definitions of terrorism all share one common element: politically motivated behavior. Such definitions do not include violence for financial profit or religious motivation. Additionally, the rapid growth of transnational criminal organizations and the growing range and scale of such operations could well result in their use of violence to achieve objectives with financial profit as the driving motivation. Thus, although the basic assumption today is that all terrorist acts are politically motivated, some are driven by other factors, and this number may grow in light of expanding international criminal activity and an increasing number of extremist acts carried out in the name of religious and cultural causes. A new approach might focus more on defining terrorist acts, giving less emphasis to the motivation behind the acts.
For the purposes of the Patterns of Global Terrorism report the definition of terrorism chosen is the one contained in Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f(d). That statute contains the following definitions:
The term "terrorism" means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant/*/ targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.
The term "international terrorism" means terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than one country.
The term "terrorist group" means any group practicing, or that has significant subgroups that practice, international terrorism.
The US Government has employed this definition of terrorism for statistical and analytical purposes since 1983.
Domestic terrorism is probably a more widespread phenomenon than international terrorism. Because international terrorism has a direct impact on US interests, it is the primary focus of this report. However, the report also describes, but does not provide statistics on, significant developments in domestic terrorism.
/*/For purposes of this definition, the term "noncombatant" is interpreted to include, in addition to civilians, military personnel who at the time of the incident are unarmed or not on duty. For example, in past reports we have listed as terrorist incidents the murders of the following US military personnel: Col. James Rowe, killed in Manila in April 1989; Capt. William Nordeen, US defense attache killed in Athens in June 1988; the two servicemen killed in the Labelle discotheque bombing in West Berlin in April 1986; and the four off-duty US Embassy Marine guards killed in a cafe in El Salvador in June 1985. We also consider as acts of terrorism attacks on military installations or on armed military personnel when a state of military hostilities does not exist at the site, such as bombings against US bases in Europe, the Philippines, or elsewhere.
As used in the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, the term "terrorist activity" means any activity which is unlawful under the laws of the place where it is committed (or which, if committed in the United States, would be unlawful under the laws of the United States or any State) and which involves any of the following:
"(I) The hijacking or sabotage of any conveyance (including an aircraft, vessel, or vehicle).
"(II) The seizing or detaining, and threatening to kill, injure, or continue to detain, another individual in order compel a third person (including a governmental organization) to do or abstain from doing any act as an explicit or implicit condition for the release of the individual seized or detained.
quot;(III) A violent attack upon an internationally protected person (as defined in section 1116(b)(4) of title 18, United States code) or upon the liberty of such a person.
"(IV) An assassination.
"(V) The use of any-
"(a) biological agent, chemical agent, or nuclear weapon or device,
or
"(b) explosive or firearm (other than for mere personal monetary gain), with intent to endanger, directly or indirectly, the safety of one or more individuals or to cause substantial damage to property.
"(VI) A threat, attempt, or conspiracy to do any of the foregoing.
For additional information of the definitions used in designations see: Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
The Field Manual of the U.S. Army defines terrorism as the "the unlawful use of--or threatened use of--force or violence against individuals or property to coerce or intimidate governments or societies, often to achieve political, religious, or ideological objectives." Religious and ideological objectives compel political action; thus, it is violence to modify political behavior which is the primary military concern.
Posted by: Persona non grata | May 24, 2008 at 03:57 PM
So we should celebrate the fact that shifting the attribution of civilian deaths from terrorism to war crimes committed by the United States government?
I doubt the victim's families are comforted by knowing their loved one's death is part of a crime against humanity committed by the world's most powerful nation.
Posted by: Charles D | May 24, 2008 at 10:09 AM