The New York Times this morning reported official statistics confirming something that had been predicted or proclaimed several times recently: China has overtaken Japan as the world's second-largest economy.
Says The Times: "The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that China’s ascendance is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower."
The newspaper quickly noted another familiar China refrain, which is that the country wants to diversify beyond exports and investment (massive funding for infrastructure) to a healthier domestic economy.
Most conversations about China's future, especially with economic analysts here, include some variation of the phrase "domestic consumption" -- that is, more people buying more stuff, big and small, in China. As that happens, the domestic economy should grow and the dependence on the export market in these fickle times should lessen.
All of which brings to mind, in my corner of the world, a new bicycle.
After finishing brunch yesterday afternoon, Meg and I decided to buy ourselves a pair of bikes. The sky was unusually blue and there weren't too many tourists on the streets; a walk up Gulou Dongdajie to take a look at the shops there seemed like a pleasant idea.
We ducked into a store and there were bicycles of every size and description.
Beijing is a flat city, and most here opt for plain bicycles with no gears. As a good American consumer, though, my eyes went greedily to the more expensive row of models -- fancy things with descriptions of high-tech materials, shock absorbers and such.
The primate-shopper part of my brain started to rationalize paying more cash for a bike that was bigger and tougher. Super-size it!
Then I remembered -- this is China. If I pay a lot of money for something and it breaks, I have little recourse. The store probably wouldn't exchange the bike, and the prospect of a refund would be close to nil. It is the land of caveat emptor. Let the buyer beware: If your purchase falls apart, there's nothing you can do.
I felt badly about thinking that way. The store was nice, and the staff seemed great.
But still, there's a general uneasiness that comes from a few unfortunate purchases and a local economy awash with stories of fake and, at times, unsafe products. From deadly milk to luxury apartments that begin to fall apart -- coupled with a lack of consumer protection that closely parallels a lack of rule of law -- I've heard or seen too many examples of bad consumer experiences to put much money on the counter.
During my language lessons earlier this year one teacher spent a full session discussing shanzhai; a word that roughly means something is a copy or knock-off, but that also conveys a broader sense of things here sometimes being cheaply made and undependable. (The lesson was occasioned by telling the teacher that my tea thermos, from a local market, exploded hot water all over my hands that morning.)
The problem is much more serious than my petty purchases. A story carried in state media earlier this month quoted a senior researcher at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development as saying that more than half of China's existing structures will need to be demolished in the next two decades. "Only those homes built after 1999 are likely to be preserved in the longer term," said Chen Huai, director of the policy research center at the ministry.
And I'm not sure how much confidence there is in post-1999 construction.
For a country that wants to drive up domestic consumption, widespread worries about product quality and scant legal recourse to assuage those concerns is a serious issue.
So, at the shop we both went with very basic but solid-looking models and paid the equivalent of $215 for two bikes. I left the store still vaguely guilty about not having more trust in the local economy.
About two minutes later a piece of my wife's bike fell off on the sidewalk. It was the bell from the handlebar -- an important detail on Beijing's crowded streets that goes a long way toward avoiding an accident.
I went back to the store and said "Two minutes? Is this a joke?" The man screwed the bell back on and gave a little shrug of the shoulders and a smile. What did I expect?
(Gady Epstein at Forbes has posted a smart take on just how big the news about China's move to No. 2 is. Or isn't. "China Economy Doing Better Than Japan" is here.)

Hi C.T. -- Really good points. I would add that underlying the worry of getting cheated is a lack of recourse when/if that happens.
Best, Tom
Posted by: Tom Lasseter | August 20, 2010 at 12:16 PM
It's a vicious catch-22. There are producers that are willing to make better quality products and there are Chinese consumers willing to pay a higher price for better quality. However, consumers are wary of being cheated so they buy the cheaper versions instead. The reasoning is that it's ok to pay $1 for a $1 product. But they do not want to pay $5 for a $1 product. Due to this, producers of better quality products find it more difficult to compete and sometimes must abandon the market.
Posted by: C.T. | August 20, 2010 at 11:26 AM
I've been in Beijing 6 years, and lost far more bikes to outright decay than theft or sudden failure or what have you. In this city, bikes are doable, but I've had a lot better luck with premium folding bikes than I ever have with "plain old bikes". I'm currently riding a Dahon, a Taiwanese-manufactured, American-designed brand with lots of outlets scattered around the city, and a repair guarantee that's kept mine running in solid shape for 10 months without a tire blowout, brake failure, or anything falling off. $800 for my model, but worth it for the headaches you save, plus it fits on airplanes, so you can take it home! You and your readers might give that some thought before you buy a bike with a half-life less than plutonium atoms...
Posted by: Nick | August 20, 2010 at 03:56 AM
Disagree with Bato for Beijing, steel is OK here, it is qute dry most of the time. It is very common to see good old steel frames that have laster 20+ years. the problem is everything else, you get something that looks and feeels like solid steel but is actually just badly sintered crap with a paint job. Screws that are made with something like pig iron, screw them in, but never try screwing them back out. Your frames will last, but things that wont: tyres, chain, brakes, brake pads, reflectors, lights, basket and other holders. Maybe the rear holder is OK, they are expected to carry a passenger. your local bike repairman is there because he is much needed...
Posted by: el pato | August 18, 2010 at 05:25 AM
yeah, i once bought a bag from a famous name store in Plaza 66 in Shanghai, american brand, first name rhymes with pommy, anyway, the zip fell off and the bottom ripped open, it was clearly a fake.
I took it back, together with the receipt clearly showing what I had bought but they accused me of swapping the original for a fake. Some shouting and anger later the manageress finally admitted that their staff had been buying fakes, putting their labels and SKUs on them to look real and selling them out of the store. A major US brand in Plaza 66! How can anyone trust anything sold in China?
Posted by: CS | August 18, 2010 at 02:47 AM
I see by your picture that these bikes are using steel frames...better use alloy parts- handle bars, forks, stainless alloy chains, and sprockets. For faster response use semi-automatic gearshift levers (combine with brake levers). It will save you a lot of confusion while driving, and enhanced safety too. Biking is fun an excellent exercise, but sustaining your career is much better.
Posted by: bato | August 17, 2010 at 10:34 PM
Bicycle made in Taiwan is very much better. You must choose the aluminum/magnesium alloy frame to avoid accidental structural brakedown while you are riding along. The danger of steel frames is that rust always develop inside the tube frames; and that poor drainage will acerbate the risk. Many cyclist died after their bikes broke-down unexpectedly.
Posted by: bato | August 17, 2010 at 10:27 PM