Kevin Rudd, the Australian prime minister, is a man to watch when it comes to observing China’s relations with the world.
As everyone probably knows by now, Rudd, a former diplomat, speaks Mandarin well and is seen by China as a friendly interlocutor.
But Rudd is hypersensitive about being seen among Australian voters as too cozy with the Chinese so he virtually never speaks with the Australian press about China.
Last weekend, the No. 5 man in China’s ruling Politburo Standing Committee, Li Changchun, visited Rudd in Canberra, and Rudd’s office kept the visit virtually secret. Li is in charge of propaganda, media and ideology. Given these high-level contacts, it’s worthwhile listening to Rudd when he does speak about China, which he did Wednesday evening in Washington on the NewsHour With Jim Lehrer program on PBS. Rudd spoke after coming out of a meeting with Barack Obama at the White House (see photo). Here are excerpts from a transcript provided by PBS, beginning with a segment on the upcoming G-20 meeting next month in London to deal with the global financial crisis:
JIM LEHRER: Of course, one of the major economies in the world is China. Is it doing its part?
KEVIN RUDD: The Chinese have stumped up a reasonable stimulus package so far. It's probably something in the order of about $500 billion. This...
LEHRER: What is that -- put that in perspective, what does that mean, $500 billion? Is that a big package or is that -- in Chinese terms...
RUDD: Well, there are different ways of calculating such a package in China. And, of course, there's a certain opaqueness with some of the numbers in China. And there are other things which the Chinese may not be currently declaring, for example, how credit is being released through their banks to support businesses and consumers.
But if governments around the world -- and this debate on fiscal stimulus is getting going a bit at the moment -- let's just look at the possibility of governments not stepping up to the plate with what they've already done.
The IMF has calculated there will be 20 million -- nearly 20 million more people on the unemployment queue across the G-20 economies today, including China, were it not for fiscal stimulus. I think the responsible course of action is to get behind this as a temporary measure.
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At another point, Rudd goes into great detail about his views about China:
LEHRER: You've suggested in some of the things you've written and said that you believe there is a golden opportunity for -- that's my word, not yours -- for the United States, as well as the rest of -- Australia and the rest of the so-called developed world, to collaborate more with China and kind of move together as partners in some of these areas involving economic and financial matters. Explain your point there.
RUDD: Right now we're trying to deal responsibly, globally, with this global recession, through the G-20. Now, what's the G-20? It includes 20 of the largest economies in the world, a few exceptions. But it's got some representativeness to it, because together they represent about 80 percent or 90 percent of global GDP.
But it's also a small enough body that you can actually get together and broker some decisions politically. And in the past, a lot of our international institutions have broken down because an agreement couldn't be reached.
Now, China is a player in the G-20. And, therefore, when we look at one of the decisions we're going to have to make soon, when is the reform of the International Monetary Fund, China will be expected to step up to the plate and put more resources into the fund.
But China right now, its voting rights within that fund are the equivalent of Belgium and the Netherlands. I think you've got to change that so that China has a bigger place at the table, rightly, but also that the world can then draw upon the resources which China puts responsibly into an international financial institution.
That's one example of how this G-20 group can help frame an outcome for the future of the International Monetary Fund, which also brings China into helping with the solution.
LEHRER: In a more general way -- I mean, you are a China hand, as a professional diplomat, you speak Mandarin Chinese -- should China -- what would be your advice to Americans as to how they should view China now, as a competitor, as a potential ally, as an enemy, as a potential problem? What is it? What's China represent -- should represent to the average American? Put it in any terms you want to.
RUDD: Jim, I think China represents a huge opportunity for us all for the 21st century. The numbers speak for themselves. The center of global economic gravity is moving to the Asia Pacific region in the 21st century. And so what's happening in China, we see it also with India and you also see it with many other economies in the region, in Southeast Asia, Indonesia. But China is big. And, of course, the continued strength of Japan, as well.
Therefore, when you look at China in the future, I don't think anything's to be served by simply assuming it's all going to go bad. I think the challenge is this -- and our friends in America to do the same -- work with us in integrating China into the institutions of global governance, on the political side, on the security side, also on the economic side through, for example, the G-20, and also integrate them front and center in the great challenge of climate change, as well.
If you engender that sort of environment, then you enable China to do -- as the head of the World Bank, Bob Zoellick, once said -- for China to play the role of a responsible global stakeholder.
Now, if China was to turn its back on that or not be responsible, the world would soon know. But I think the smart course of action for us all is to involve them.
They're not perfect. They've done some bad things in the past. But let's look at the opportunities, rather than simply assume it's all threat and all risk.