Word is that among those in the running for the next Nobel peace prize, which will be announced in Oslo Friday, are two Chinese dissidents.

So the question is: Will this help the cause of human rights or hurt the cause?

According to this Bloomberg story, Oslo’s International Peace Research Institute says the top candidates for the 2008 Peace Prize include dissidents Hu Jia, 35, and Gao Zhisheng, a 44-year-old lawyer. Both are in detention.

Hu is perhaps better known. His causes over the years have ranged from AIDS activism to environmentalism. Most recently, he came to Gao’s defense once Gao was put under detention.

The story suggests that the Norwegian Nobel Committee may have not wanted to antagonize China in recent years by awarding the Prize to a dissident. But since the Summer Olympics didn’t bring an across-the-board improvement, then some on the committee feel the time is ripe.

The story quotes one Norwegian, Njaal Hoestmaelingen, of Norwegian Center for Human Rights, wondering if selection of a Chinese dissident might be counterproductive.

``The Chinese reaction may be to make such work far more difficult, and make it more difficult for Norway and other Western countries to collaborate with China on promoting human rights there,'' Hoestmaelingen said.

It’s an interesting debate that has many permutations.  In some cases, publicizing the case of a dissident can ensure that his or her life is protected. Beijing pays attention to international pressure. On the other hand, Chinese officials can see it as a stick in the eye. They can shut off access, take out reprisals on unrelated parties, etc.

On a separate topic, who can come up with the best caption for this photo below of a health inspector in Chengdu last week checking on milk quality at a collection center?

I’ve just returned from a holiday in Japan, and I’ve seen China’s future.

Elderly people. Lots of elderly people.

It wasn’t so noticeable in the big cities, like Kyoto and Tokyo. Or even in mid-size Nagano. But get into small towns and it smacks you in the face. Nearly every shop is staffed by an elderly person.

We went one day to Karuizawa, a mountain resort town in the Japanese Alps about a half-hour train ride from Nagano. The local shopping center was full of elderly people, many clutching small lapdogs.

On another day trip to Kusatsu, a famous hot spring town, the whole train wagon was filled with elderly people.

This is just anecdotal evidence but the figures bear out that Japan has the highest proportion of elderly people in the world. About 22 percent of the population is 65 years old or older.

Now, China is far behind that. But it will catch up. Current figures say 10.9 percent of China’s 1.3 billion people are over age 60. But that proportion will more than triple over the next 50 years to 35.8 percent.

So if Japan looks old now, wait until you see China at mid-century.

Not only will there be a lot of old people, there’ll be huge numbers of very aged, that is, people over age 80. That proportion of China’s population over age 80 will increase from the current 1.8 percent to 6.8 percent.

Think about it. If the total  population stays static (which it won’t but I don’t have the actual projections before me), that would mean there would be some 88 million Chinese over age 80, well over the population of France.

I’ve taken some of these figures from the journal Health Affairs in an article in July/August titled The Health of Aging Populations in China and India. It talks about the burden that aging populations will put on China and India, but that will be a topic for another day.