Heading into election season, it’s worth looking at how both major candidates look at U.S. China relations and the future of China.

This is a rather lengthy post with two parts. The first part is a Reuters synopsis of a report from the Asia Foundation about the policies, in very broad strokes, of John McCain and Barack Obama toward Asia. I’ve edited down sections on Pakistan and India but left in anything pertinent to China. This information is gleaned largely from speeches, campaign websites and party platforms.

The second part includes essays written by McCain and Obama (or top aides) for the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s monthly magazine. These essays, released this morning, have a lot of boilerplate in them. I was going to edit down but decided just to boldface the key policy points that differentiate the candidates.

One can spot as many similarities as differences. McCain says he would be less adversarial with China than Obama. For his part, Obama suggests that he will push China harder to liberalize its currency and on domestic human rights issues here. Both say they will press China to lean on such allies as Burma, Iran and Sudan.

One side note to all this, while much of the world is mesmerized by the U.S. election, hoping for a significant shift in U.S. policies, China remains wary of a post-Bush era with evident nostalgia for the presidencies both of George H.W. Bush (1989-1993) and George W. Bush (2001-2009). Father and son are seen as FOC (friends of China), reliable for their pro-business push and willingness to cut China slack on many issues. There’s some trepidation in China about what lies ahead.

Here’s the Asia Foundation summary:

    OBAMA
    * U.S. ALLIANCES - Vows to maintain strong U.S. military and strengthen ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia and work to build a framework that goes beyond bilateral agreements and builds on arrangements like the six-nation North Korea nuclear talks. Seeks regional framework to confront shared transnational threats such as terrorism and avian flu.
    * CHINA - Sees opportunities and challenges for the United States and its allies in emergence of China.  Vows to boost military-to-military dialogue, work to boost cooperation on shared security, energy and environment objectives. Says will not demonize China but will press China to live up to international human rights standards and stop its support for repressive regimes in Iran, Myanmar, Sudan and Zimbabwe.
    * TAIWAN - Recognizes One China Policy but says U.S. policy is also based on Taiwan Relations Act, which requires helping the island defend itself in the event that China moves to alter the status quo or violates the principle that all issues regarding the island's future must be resolved peacefully, through dialogue, and be agreeable to the people of Taiwan.
    * TRADE - Vows to oppose trade agreements that undermine U.S. economic security and fight to open up foreign markets to support American jobs. Intends to use diplomacy and trade laws to stop Chinese manipulation of its currency and intellectual property piracy. Will press the World Trade Organization to stop distorting government subsidies to foreign exporters and nontariff barriers on U.S. exports. 
    * SECURITY - Supports strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to bring international sanctions on countries like North Korea and Iran that break nonproliferation
rules.

    MCCAIN
    * U.S. ALLIANCES - Values long-standing ties and shared values with Australia and sees alliance with Japan as cornerstone of regional peace and prosperity. Wants Japan to forge a leadership role in regional and global affairs and respects South Korea for vigilance against North Korea.
    * CHINA - Seeks nuclear dialogue with Beijing to boost transparency and cooperation, bring China in to line with the policies of other recognized nuclear weapon states. Hopes for political and religious liberalization to match China's economic freedoms and believes integration into the global economy requires China to adopt a flexible exchange rate.
    * TAIWAN - Policy based on Taiwan Relations Act.
    * SECURITY - Says larger, more capable U.S. military needed to cope with terrorism, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, threats from rogue states and the rise of potential strategic competitors like China and Russia. Sees missile defense as critical protection against ballistic missiles from North Korea and Iran and to hedge against potential threats from possible competitors like Russia and China.

Here are the candidates’ essays

MCCAIN ON SINO-U.S. RELATIONS

The resurgence of Asia is one of the epochal events of our time. It is a renaissance that is not only transforming the face of this vast region, but throwing open new opportunities for billions of people on both sides of the Pacific—Americans and Asians alike—to build a safer, more prosperous and freer world.

Seizing these opportunities, however, will require strong American leadership and an unequivocal American commitment to Asia, whose fate is increasingly inseparable from our own. It requires internationalism rather than isolationism, and global trade rather than national protectionism. When our friends and allies in the Asia-Pacific region think of the future, they should expect more — not less — attention, investment and cooperation from the highest levels of the US government.

A central challenge will be getting America’s relationship with China right. China’s double-digit growth rates have brought hundreds of millions out of poverty, energized the economies of its neighbors and produced manifold new economic opportunities. The US shares common interests with China that can form the basis of a strong partnership on issues of global concern, including climate change, trade and proliferation. But some of China’s economic practices, combined with its rapid military modernization, lack of political freedom and close relations with regimes like Sudan and Burma, tend to undermine the very international system on which its rise depends. The next American president must build on the areas of overlapping interest to forge a more durable US-China relationship. 

It must be a priority of the next American president to expand America’s economic relationships in Asia. Unfortunately, in what has become an all-too-predictable pattern, some American politicians — including the Democratic candidate for president — are preying on the fears stoked by Asia’s dynamism; rather than encouraging American innovation and entrepreneurship, they instead propose throwing up protectionist walls that will leave us all worse off. The United States has never won respect or created jobs by retreating from free trade, and we cannot start doing so now. 

We also must recognize, however, that while open trade with Asia is in America’s interest, globalization will not automatically benefit every American. That’s why we must remain committed to education, retraining and help for displaced workers, regardless of whether their job went away because of trade, technological innovation, or shifts in consumer spending patterns. For Americans who have lost a job, we need to expand opportunities for further education and training that can open new doors. We need to modernize our unemployment insurance system to reflect the reality of the 21st century economy: jobs that go away no longer come back when business rebounds. We need to help displaced workers make ends meet between jobs and move people quickly on to the next opportunity. 

China has obligations as well. Its commitment to open markets must include enforcement of international trade rules, protecting intellectual property, lowering manufacturing tariffs and fulfillment of its commitment to move to a market-determined currency. The next administration should be clear about where China needs to make progress, hold it to its commitments through enforcement at the World Trade Organization and enforce US trade and product safety laws. Doing so will help steer the process of China’s economic integration with the world to ensure that it is a fair, two-way street. And the US should continually expand opportunities as China develops, moving into retail ventures, environmental protection, health, education, financial and other services.

Beyond our economic relationship, the US shares other common interests with China that can form the basis of a strong partnership on issues of global concern.  In addressing the problem of climate change, for instance, Chinese cooperation will be essential. If we are going to establish meaningful environmental protocols, they must include the two nations—China and India—that have the potential to pollute the air faster, and in greater annual volume, than any nation ever in history.

The United States should continue to negotiate in good faith with China and other nations to enact the standards and controls that are in the interest of every nation—whatever their stage of economic development. America can take the lead in offering these developing nations low-carbon technologies that we will all need. Given the environmental challenges so evident in China today, pressing on with uncontrolled carbon emissions is in no one's interest.

China’s growing power and influence endow it with the obligation to behave as a responsible stakeholder in global politics. China could bolster its claim that it is "peacefully rising" by being more transparent about its significant military buildup and by working with the world to isolate pariah states. In addition, how a nation treats its citizens is a legitimate subject of international concern in today’s world. China has signed numerous international agreements that make its domestic behavior more than just a matter of national sovereignty. To be a responsible stakeholder in the modern international system, a government must also be responsible at home, in protecting the rights of its people.   

China and the United States are not destined to be adversaries. We have numerous overlapping interests and I hope to see our relationship evolve in a manner that benefits both countries and, in turn, the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Our ties must be rooted in a broader regional and international order that provides the indispensible bedrock for the shared prosperity and stability we all desire. America itself must be a stakeholder in that system, and we must take seriously our responsibilities to contribute to it. It is in this spirit that America’s relations with China, and with the countries that comprise the region surrounding it, should proceed.

OBAMA ON SINO-U.S. RELATIONS

In the coming years, the United States and China face challenges that require fresh thinking and a change from the US policy approach of the past eight years. How the US and China meet these challenges, and the extent to which we can find common ground, will be important both for our own countries and for others in Asia and beyond.

China has achieved extraordinary, sustained growth over the past three decades. Hundreds of millions of people in China live better now than most thought possible even two decades ago. 

But as China’s leaders acknowledge, China must make some basic adjustments if it is to continue sustained, shared economic growth. China must develop practices that are more environmentally sustainable and less energy intensive, that boost domestic consumption as an engine of growth, that enhance the social safety net, and that encourage indigenous technology innovation. Otherwise, the country’s future performance may fall well short of its potential.

The United States has the world’s largest and strongest economy, but we, too, must make serious adjustments in order to be competitive in the 21st century. We must end the fiscal irresponsibility of recent years that has led to record high deficits and a record low national savings rate. We must invest in infrastructure, education, health care, science and technology. And we must break our addiction to oil and launch a historic effort to transform our economy by investing in renewable technologies, energy efficiency and the next generation of clean vehicles. These initiatives will help lay the foundation for broad based, bottom-up economic growth that benefits all Americans and helps strengthen US-China relations as well. 

We know that America and China can accomplish much when we recognize our common interests. US and Chinese cooperation in the Six Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear issue over the past few years makes clear that we can work together constructively, bilaterally and with others, to reduce tensions on even extraordinarily sensitive issues.

More broadly, the United States supports and benefits from security and stability in Asia. We need to address the principal causes of regional tension. As I made clear in my congratulatory letter to Ma Ying-jeou on his inauguration, we support steps to build trust across the Taiwan Strait and improvements in relations between Beijing and Taipei, now more possible with good will by both sides than at any time since the mid-1990s.  Reduction of tensions between China and Japan is in the interests of those two countries, and of the United States. We seek the type of stability and well-being on the Korean peninsula that can only be brought about by the complete elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and normalization of relations between North Korea and all the participants in the Six Party Talks. And finally, and critically, we need a strong foundation for a long-term positive and constructive relationship with an emerging China.

I firmly believe that an active, sophisticated and nimble US diplomatic, economic and security presence in the region is critical to achieving these and related goals. Our alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand are the foundation of the US security presence in the region and contribute greatly to regional stability, threatening to no one. Along with the forward deployment of our military forces in the Western Pacific, they are a necessary but not sufficient basis for a sound strategy to strengthen regional security and stability. An Obama Administration will look for opportunities to work with China and others in the region to foster an environment where regional stability and prosperity flourish. 

Asia’s economic and security landscape is changing, and this requires special attention to understanding unfolding developments in the region. But America’s interests in the vitality and stability of the region are enduring.

With this in mind, I want to address some of the key issues that directly involve our two countries.

Trade and investment undergirds prosperity, and the US and China have one of the largest and most important bilateral economic relationships in the world. Our two nations are the first and third largest trading nations, and China has in recent years been America’s most rapidly growing major export market. 

I know that America and the world can benefit from trade with China, but only if China agrees to play by the rules and act as a positive force for balanced world growth. I want China’s economy to continue to grow, its domestic demand to expand and its vitality to contribute to regional and global prosperity. But China’s current growth is unbalanced, and in recent years domestic consumption has actually gone down as a percentage of GDP. To increase internal demand Beijing will have to improve substantially its social safety net and upgrade its financial services sector to bring its consumption in line with international norms.

Central to any rebalancing of our economic relationship with China must be change in its currency practices. Because it pegs its currency at an artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses. This is not good for American firms and workers, not good for the world, and ultimately likely to produce inflation problems in China itself.

As President, I will use all the diplomatic avenues available to seek a change in China’s currency practices. I will also undertake more sustained and serious efforts to combat intellectual property piracy in China, and to address regulations that discriminate against foreign investments in major sectors and other unfair trading practices. And I will work with the Chinese government to establish a better system for both countries to monitor products produced for export and act when dangerous products are identified.

As President, I will take a vigorous, pragmatic approach to addressing these issues, utilizing our domestic trade remedy laws as well as the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism wherever appropriate. High-level dialogue among economic leaders in both countries is also important to achieving real progress. My approach to our economic relationship is positive and forward-looking: to remove obstructions to gaining the benefits of trade and thus to enable faster, and healthier, growth in both economies. 

Climate change is a truly common challenge and a long-term problem that must be addressed now. The United States has done too little on the issue, and I will work with the Congress and the private sector to change that. 

The United States and China have heavy, if different, responsibilities to meet this vital challenge. For too long, however, each has pointed a finger at the other’s attitudes as an excuse for not itself doing more. That must stop. 

The climate change challenge demands that the United States and China develop much higher levels of cooperation without delay. We are currently the world’s two largest consumers of oil and the two largest emitters of greenhouse gasses. As the world’s richest developed economy and largest and most dynamic developing country, our cooperation to reduce the threat of climate change can produce models, practices and technologies that will provide impetus to global efforts, including those to reach agreement on a post-Kyoto climate regime.

America and China have developed a mature, wide-ranging relationship over the past 30-plus years. Yet we still have to do serious work if we are to create the level of mutual trust necessary for long-term cooperation in a rapidly changing region. Each country has deep concerns about the long-term intentions of the other, and those concerns will not disappear of their own accord.

Cooperation on the key, enduring global challenges, such as climate change, can deepen understanding and enhance confidence.  We also need to deepen high-level dialogues on a sustained basis on economic, security and global political issues. Our militaries should increase not only the quantity of their contacts but the quality of their engagement. 

In the modern world, non-traditional security threats are looming increasingly large. These include the challenges of terrorism, proliferation, failed states, infectious diseases, humanitarian disasters and piracy on the high seas. The United States and China have developed some cooperation in each of these areas, but in some we continue to have real differences, about which we must be candid.  In particular, I look to China to work with us to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, to halt the genocide in Darfur and to help reverse the slide into anarchy in Zimbabwe. 

Greater progress in protecting the human rights of all its people and moving toward democracy and rule of law will better enable China to achieve its full potential as a nation, domestically and internationally. China’s own people will expect, indeed demand, this. Such change will not weaken China, as its leaders may fear, but will provide a firmer basis for long-term stability and prosperity. China cannot stand indefinitely apart from the global trend toward democratic government, rule of law and full exercise of human rights. Protection of the unique cultural and religious traditions of the Tibetan people is an integral part of such an agenda. 

Since the 1970s, America’s policy of engaging China has produced major benefits for both sides and for Asia overall. The US-China relationship has had its share of challenges, and new ones will inevitably emerge. Especially in a world of common security, where events in any corner of the globe can affect the entire planet, the world more than ever requires that every major country not only pursue its narrow interests but also accept its responsibility to pursue urgently needed solutions to these broader problems. My administration will seek to revitalize America and lead it to realize its full potential for constructive engagement in Asia and in the global arena.