So you
may be wondering why we haven’t done a conclusive story on election results. It’s
because there aren’t any conclusive results.
Based
on observing at polling stations across the nation political parties are
declaring winners and losers. But there are no real exit polls here.
Based on a series of interviews
McClatchy News did across the nation many Iraqis seemed to have cast their
ballot for Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s Coalition of the State of Law. A
large number of Sunni Arabs said they voted for Shiite secularist and
ex-Baathist Ayad Allawi. But that’s about as scientific as it gets.
“I am astonished by these political
arguments and this escalation by some political parties. Let them wait and be
patient,” said Faraj al Haidari the head of the Independent High Electoral
Commission. “We have no results.”
Preliminary results aren’t expected
until Thursday and final results won’t be available for weeks. But it hasn’t
stopped parties from declaring victory.
Already people are battling over
fraud and declaring winners and losers. The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
spent the past few days going back and forth, declaring victory in southern
provinces and then calling it unclear. Currently they control most of the
southern provinces.
In Anbar tribal fighters flooded
the streets on Monday with accusations of fraud against their Sunni rival the
Iraqi Islamic Party. Tribal leaders threatened to take revenge if results
declared the wrong people the winner i.e. not them.
Maliki’s party is likely right that
they’ve taken a high number of seats if not the majority of seats in councils
across the country. In Baghdad the campaign manager for the group declared victory.
I could go into a long analysis
based on an educated guess.
It seems that most Iraqis turned away from the
Islamists they voted for in the past. This year Iraqis could pick specific
candidates on a slate. Some said they picked a neighbor, a friend or a cousin.
Others tried to pick a person who they thought might give them a few more hours
of electricity, long-lasting security and clean water.
Many want someone who will stop
foreign influence from Iran, end a foreign occupation and restore sovereignty
to a nation whose government so often defers to the United States and Iran before
making a decision.
Iraqis also seem to be searching
for a strong man, a leader with an iron fist. In the past year Maliki grew into
that at the behest of other parties in the government. His office often
circumvented security ministries to deal with operations and he took down Basra
where Shiite militias ruled as Americans looked on doubtingly.
Of course after he attacked and the
militias took to the streets to fight back, American fire power and Iranian negotiations
helped him succeed.
Despite Maliki’s role as a Shiite
Islamist he’s been able to recast himself as a nationalist in the past year. He’s
the only Shiite Islamist with some Sunni support as well as Shiite support. If
indeed he has swept positions in provinces across the nation we are likely to
see a government that morphs into a very strong central state versus a group of
federalist states with a weak central government.
Allawi is also seen as a strong
man. The first U.S.-installed Prime Minister of post invasion Iraq is an
ex-Baathist with once strong links to the CIA. He supported brutal military
incursions in Najaf and Fallujah during his leadership and at the time was seen
as a Washington puppet.
But his tough leadership and
willingness to crush his enemies now seems to be one of the best options many
voters said on Election Day. At least then they’d have security.
With all that said we don’t know
who won and who lost. Without results we also don’t know what they could
indicate for national elections at the end of this year.
When preliminary results come in we’ll
tell you what it means and what the fallout could be.
